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PERSHING SELECTION

Stocks · Started Sep 2023

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
15.6%
Max Drawdown
34.8%
Trades
11
Win Trades
63.6%
Profit Factor
3.50
Win Months
51.4%
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About this strategy

Pershing Square is an activist hedge fund led by renowned investor Bill Ackman. The firm manages nearly $17B, through significant investment in eight to twelve public companies at a time.

Over the years, Pershing Square has made a number of high-profile investments, including positions in companies such as Target, Canadian Pacific Railway, and Chipotle Mexican Grill.

Pershing Square Capital Management is a respected investment management firm known for its concentrated, long-term approach to investing and its success as an activist investor. Bill Ackman, the firm's founder, is a well-known figure in the investment world and is considered one of the most successful activist investors of his generation.

Every quarter, Pershing Square files its 13F filings disclosing its positions. We use this filing to create a replica of the fund's equity position. We increase the position by using a little leverage which aims to produce a return of around 1.5x that of the fund.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2023-5.5-2.012.213.017.4
20241.26.26.3-2.7-0.53.4-3.2-0.44.8-2.67.8-4.216.4
20254.1-4.5-13.7-2.511.75.90.74.22.21.211.8-3.016.3
20264.0-1.2-10.217.9-1.0-3.30.1-1.7-4.3-1.9

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/7/2023
Suggested Minimum Capital$15,000
Age37 months
What it tradesStocks
# Trades11
# Profitable7
% Profitable63.6%
Avg trade duration893.9 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown34.8%
drawdown periodDec 11, 2024 - April 08, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)15.6%
Avg win$1,537
Avg loss$956

Ratios

W:L ratio3.52
Sharpe Ratio0.61
Sortino Ratio0.88
Calmar Ratio0.59

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.57
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life72.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-16.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)15.6%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)17.5%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity12.9%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks1.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss61.5%
Chance of 20% account loss22.0%
Chance of 30% account loss9.0%
Chance of 40% account loss1.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)324
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$970
Avg Win$2,648
# Winners7
Sum Trade PL (losers)$3,881
Sum Trade PL (winners)$18,535
Num Months Winners19
# Losers4
% Winners63.6%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct1340

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table37

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)1287102.88
Avg Position Time (hrs)21451.71
Avg Trade Length893.80
Last Trade Ago672

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.30
Daily leverage (max)1.87

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.75
Treynor Index0.05

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.14
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-0.14
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.22
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.28
Hold-and-Hope Ratio1.64

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.17
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.69
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.67
df35
t1.19
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.46
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.83
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.47
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.81
Sortino ratio1.13
Upside Potential Ratio2.86
Upside part of mean0.42
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms14
N of observations36
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.03
r0.88
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error34
t(b)10.83
p(b)0
t(a)-1.46
p(a)0.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.04
Treynor index (mean / b)0.10
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
Mean0.14
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.57
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.56
df35
t0.99
p0.16
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.57
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.71
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.58
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.70
Sortino ratio0.89
Upside Potential Ratio2.61
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.26
Upside SD0.18
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms22
N negative terms14
N of observations36
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.03
r0.88
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.12
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error34
t(b)10.86
p(b)0
t(a)-1.70
p(a)0.95
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.92
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.02
Treynor index (mean / b)0.08
Jensen alpha (a)-0.12
VaR(95%)0.10
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
VaR(95%)0.04
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.08
Mean0.15
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.82
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.82
df790
t1.42
p0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.95
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.31
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.95
Sortino ratio1.18
Upside Potential Ratio9.31
Upside part of mean1.20
Downside part of mean-1.05
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms411
N negative terms380
N of observations791
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.15
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.02
r0.57
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error789
t(b)19.61
p(b)0
t(a)0.41
p(a)0.34
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.78
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.21
Treynor index (mean / b)0.21
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean0.13
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.72
df790
t1.26
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.85
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.85
Sortino ratio1.03
Upside Potential Ratio9.13
Upside part of mean1.19
Downside part of mean-1.06
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms411
N negative terms380
N of observations791
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.02
r0.58
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.72
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error789
t(b)19.81
p(b)0
t(a)0.29
p(a)0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.64
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.18
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.92
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.92
df130
t0.65
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.70
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.86
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.69
Sortino ratio1.37
Upside Potential Ratio10.03
Upside part of mean1.31
Downside part of mean-1.13
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms63
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.36
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)6.44
p(b)0.20
t(a)-0.35
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.51
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.56
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.39
Treynor index (mean / b)0.24
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
Mean0.16
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.83
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.82
df130
t0.59
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.95
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.95
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.60
Sortino ratio1.22
Upside Potential Ratio9.85
Upside part of mean1.30
Downside part of mean-1.14
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms63
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion0.16
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.01
r0.49
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.73
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.03
DF error129
t(b)6.41
p(b)0.20
t(a)-0.40
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.50
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.38
Treynor index (mean / b)0.22
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations36
Minimum0.88
Quartile 10.99
Median1.02
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.19
Mean of quarter 10.92
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.08
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.19
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-12.99
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.04
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.38
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations791
Minimum0.94
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.00
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 10.99
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low1
Percentage of outliers low0.01
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.37
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.01
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations7
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.05
Median0.08
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.24
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.08
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.24
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations39
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.30
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.11
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.17
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.25
Number of observations7
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.13
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.08
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.14
Mean of outliers high0.13
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-433971072
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)118
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.74
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.06
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.46
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.18
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.59
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.59
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.71
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.20
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.21
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.62
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.67
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.72

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
LOW long25Sep 7, 2023Jul 2, 2024$355

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.