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TPP SnP 500 TRACKER

Futures · Started Sep 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
24.7%
Max Drawdown
40.1%
Trades
29
Win Trades
79.3%
Profit Factor
5.50
Win Months
60.0%
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About this strategy

Strategy Designer: TPP
Experience in Markets: Over 20 years trading derivatives.

Comments From TPP.
This strategy has been designed to offer retail investors a simple way to track the S&P 500 on a leveraged basis. It will maintain a long position in the market, but TPP reserves the right to liquidate the position if necessary.

The S&P 500 index is a free-float capitalisation-weighted index. It tracks the largest 500 companies listed on stock exchanges in the US. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices in the world. It includes approximately 80% of the total market cap of US public companies.

Because of the leveraged nature of this strategy, it will increase the return/volatility vs the market. It is a long-term investment as indices have good years and bad years, but given enough time, it is widely agreed that a share index will increase in value.

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022-6.315.28.2-10.84.2
20239.9-4.65.21.9-0.210.14.9-3.8-9.6-5.616.36.832.3
20243.47.84.7-8.47.74.91.51.82.7-1.97.8-4.130.1
20253.1-3.4-12.30.09.28.73.22.75.34.1-1.91.419.7
20260.7-1.4-9.018.68.5-3.8-0.74.4-0.7-0.414.7

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/27/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$45,000
Age50 months
What it tradesOptions, Futures
# Trades29
# Profitable23
% Profitable79.3%
Avg trade duration74.2 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown40.1%
drawdown periodJan 24, 2025 - April 07, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)24.7%
Avg win$1,622
Avg loss$1,126

Ratios

W:L ratio5.52
Sharpe Ratio0.91
Sortino Ratio1.30
Calmar Ratio0.89

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.68
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life112.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)33.5%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)24.7%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)27.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity4.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.7%
Percent Trades Options0.3%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss42.5%
Chance of 20% account loss18.5%
Chance of 30% account loss3.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.5%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)454
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/11

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,126
Avg Win$1,622
# Winners23
Sum Trade PL (losers)$6,754
Sum Trade PL (winners)$37,310
Num Months Winners31
# Losers6
% Winners79.3%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table50

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)106863.03
Avg Position Time (hrs)1781.05
Avg Trade Length74.20
Last Trade Ago35

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.08
Daily leverage (max)6.29

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.93
Treynor Index0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.06
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.08
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.07
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.44
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)0.82
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats2.02
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats28.07
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.94
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.22
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.69

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.26
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.10
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.08
df47
t2.20
p0.02
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.10
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.09
Sortino ratio1.90
Upside Potential Ratio3.39
Upside part of mean0.46
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms14
N of observations48
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.03
r0.92
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error46
t(b)15.88
p(b)0
t(a)-0.63
p(a)0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.50
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.07
Treynor index (mean / b)0.15
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean0.23
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.98
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.97
df47
t1.96
p0.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.03
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.97
Sortino ratio1.58
Upside Potential Ratio3.06
Upside part of mean0.44
Downside part of mean-0.21
Upside SD0.19
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms14
N of observations48
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.03
r0.92
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.71
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.05
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error46
t(b)15.75
p(b)0
t(a)-0.91
p(a)0.82
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.05
Treynor index (mean / b)0.13
Jensen alpha (a)-0.05
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.24
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.23
df1053
t2.47
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.21
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.21
Sortino ratio1.79
Upside Potential Ratio9.25
Upside part of mean1.26
Downside part of mean-1.02
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms589
N negative terms465
N of observations1054
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.24
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.02
r0.71
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.91
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.09
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1052
t(b)32.85
p(b)0.14
t(a)1.27
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.85
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.96
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)0.27
Jensen alpha (a)0.09
Mean0.22
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.13
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.13
df1053
t2.27
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.11
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.11
Sortino ratio1.61
Upside Potential Ratio9.03
Upside part of mean1.25
Downside part of mean-1.03
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms589
N negative terms465
N of observations1054
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.02
r0.71
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.91
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.08
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1052
t(b)32.99
p(b)0.14
t(a)1.13
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.86
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.97
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.22
Treynor index (mean / b)0.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.08
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.18
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.29
df130
t0.92
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.48
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.07
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.49
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.06
Sortino ratio2.02
Upside Potential Ratio10.98
Upside part of mean0.98
Downside part of mean-0.80
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms63
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.18
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.78
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.91
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.05
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)14.07
p(b)0.06
t(a)0.38
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.79
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)0.20
Jensen alpha (a)0.05
Mean0.17
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.23
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.22
df130
t0.87
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.55
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio4.00
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.56
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation4.00
Sortino ratio1.90
Upside Potential Ratio10.85
Upside part of mean0.98
Downside part of mean-0.81
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms63
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.17
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.78
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.91
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)14.06
p(b)0.06
t(a)0.36
p(a)0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.78
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.29
Treynor index (mean / b)0.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations48
Minimum0.84
Quartile 10.99
Median1.02
Quartile 31.07
Maximum1.18
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.05
Mean of quarter 41.10
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.04
Mean of outliers low0.86
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.18
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-5.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.03
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.23
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations1054
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.02
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low25
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.96
Number of outliers high24
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.04
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.16
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.03
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.03
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.13
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.05
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.27
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.05
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.22
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.27
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-6.89
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.17
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.17
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.81
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.31
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.34
Number of observations71
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.32
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.09
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high9
Percentage of outliers high0.13
Mean of outliers high0.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.17
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.43
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.19
Number of observations10
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.06
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.20
Mean of outliers high0.05
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-27.78
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-406645600
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)73
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.45
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.29
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.09
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.34
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.60
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.44
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.29
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.89
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.09
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal11.88
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.21
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.22
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.71
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs5.08
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal12.98

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MES U6long2Jun 18, 2026Sep 17, 2026$502
@MES M6long2Mar 19, 2026Jun 18, 2026$8,253
@MES H6long2Feb 24, 2026Mar 19, 2026($2,451)
@MES H6long2Dec 18, 2025Feb 23, 2026$1,050
@MES Z5long2Sep 19, 2025Dec 18, 2025$523
@MES U5long2Sep 9, 2025Sep 19, 2025$1,431
@MES U5long2Jun 20, 2025Sep 9, 2025$4,849
@MES M5long2Mar 21, 2025Jun 20, 2025$2,795
SPY2521C700 long1Dec 23, 2024Mar 22, 2025($11)
SPY2521C650 short1Dec 23, 2024Mar 22, 2025$92
SPY2521O480 short1Dec 23, 2024Mar 22, 2025$210
SPY2521O540 long1Dec 23, 2024Mar 22, 2025($547)
@MES H5long2Dec 23, 2024Mar 21, 2025($3,436)
@MES H5long1.2Dec 20, 2024Dec 23, 2024$474
SPY2420L730 long0.6Oct 2, 2024Dec 21, 2024($3)
SPY2420X485 short0.6Oct 2, 2024Dec 21, 2024$162
SPY2420L630 short0.6Oct 2, 2024Dec 21, 2024$36
SPY2420X520 long0.6Oct 2, 2024Dec 21, 2024($314)
@MES Z4long1.8Sep 19, 2024Dec 20, 2024$1,236
@MES U4long1.8Jun 20, 2024Sep 19, 2024$1,145
@MES M4long1.8Mar 14, 2024Jun 20, 2024$2,736
@MES H4long1.8Jan 3, 2024Mar 14, 2024$3,268
@MES H4long1.8Dec 14, 2023Dec 26, 2023$232
@MES Z3long1.8Sep 14, 2023Dec 14, 2023$1,672
@MES U3long1.8Jun 15, 2023Sep 14, 2023$544
@MES M3long1.8Mar 17, 2023Jun 15, 2023$3,594
@MES H3long1.8Dec 16, 2022Mar 17, 2023$602
@MES Z2long3.6Sep 27, 2022Dec 16, 2022$1,203

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.