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HYBRID US SMALL CAP

Futures · Started Apr 2025

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
27.2%
Max Drawdown
14.6%
Trades
8
Win Trades
50.0%
Profit Factor
4.30
Win Months
73.7%
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Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20254.72.26.42.87.31.32.53.20.835.6
20263.0-0.3-4.113.54.21.9-2.72.3-6.7-3.16.8

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/11/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$35,000
Age19 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades8
# Profitable4
% Profitable50.0%
Avg trade duration70.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown14.6%
drawdown periodJan 22, 2026 - March 30, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)27.2%
Avg win$4,498
Avg loss$1,051

Ratios

W:L ratio4.28
Sharpe Ratio1.34
Sortino Ratio2.15
Calmar Ratio2.85

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.58
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life44.6%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)0.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)27.2%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.3%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)33.1%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity13.8%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss13.5%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)565
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$1,060
Avg Win$4,498
# Winners4
Sum Trade PL (losers)$4,240
Sum Trade PL (winners)$17,990
Num Months Winners14
# Losers4
% Winners50.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table19

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)100777
Avg Position Time (hrs)1679.62
Avg Trade Length70
Last Trade Ago35

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.90
Daily leverage (max)1.65

Regression

Alpha0.02
Beta0.69
Treynor Index0.10

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.05
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.10
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.05
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.04
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.97
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-3.89
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.27
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.51
Hold-and-Hope Ratio1.09

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.28
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.56
df17
t2.00
p0.23
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.08
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.12
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.25
Sortino ratio3.33
Upside Potential Ratio4.85
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms5
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.01
r0.61
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.02
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error16
t(b)3.07
p(b)0.20
t(a)0.42
p(a)0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.72
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.23
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.34
Treynor index (mean / b)0.27
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.26
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.56
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.49
df17
t1.91
p0.24
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.22
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.17
Sortino ratio3.04
Upside Potential Ratio4.56
Upside part of mean0.39
Downside part of mean-0.13
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms13
N negative terms5
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.26
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.01
r0.61
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.03
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error16
t(b)3.08
p(b)0.20
t(a)0.33
p(a)0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.32
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)0.25
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.07
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.28
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.96
df395
t2.42
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.56
Sortino ratio3.31
Upside Potential Ratio11.72
Upside part of mean0.99
Downside part of mean-0.71
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms217
N negative terms179
N of observations396
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.28
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.61
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.13
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error394
t(b)15.14
p(b)0
t(a)1.39
p(a)0.08
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)0.42
Jensen alpha (a)0.13
Mean0.27
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.90
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.90
df395
t2.34
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.30
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.50
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.30
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.50
Sortino ratio3.16
Upside Potential Ratio11.56
Upside part of mean0.99
Downside part of mean-0.72
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms217
N negative terms179
N of observations396
Mean of predictor0.22
Mean of criterion0.27
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.61
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.67
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.12
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error394
t(b)15.15
p(b)0
t(a)1.35
p(a)0.09
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.59
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)0.40
Jensen alpha (a)0.12
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.05
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.42
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.41
df130
t-0.30
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.19
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.36
Sortino ratio-0.59
Upside Potential Ratio8.37
Upside part of mean0.71
Downside part of mean-0.76
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms61
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.62
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.15
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)9.04
p(b)0.13
t(a)-1.15
p(a)0.56
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.49
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.08
Jensen alpha (a)-0.15
Mean-0.06
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.48
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.47
df130
t-0.34
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.30
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.25
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.30
Sortino ratio-0.67
Upside Potential Ratio8.28
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean-0.76
Upside SD0.08
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms70
N negative terms61
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion-0.06
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.01
r0.62
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.16
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)9.03
p(b)0.13
t(a)-1.17
p(a)0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.49
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.76
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.09
Jensen alpha (a)-0.16
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations18
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1.02
Quartile 31.06
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.96
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.04
Mean of quarter 41.08
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-17.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.10
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.07
Number of observations396
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.04
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high12
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.21
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.08
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high4
Percentage of outliers high0.03
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.10
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.02
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.03
Median0.06
Quartile 30.09
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations39
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.15
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.95
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.66
Number of observations11
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.12
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.13
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.07
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.79
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.66
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-500469184
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)67
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.8%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.36
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.33
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.85
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.85
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal4.48
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.38
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.35
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)2.85
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs7.03
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal20.52
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.03
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.03
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.23
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.45
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.86

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@M2K U6long4Sep 15, 2026Sep 17, 2026($41)
@M2K U6long4Jun 18, 2026Sep 15, 2026($365)
@M2K M6long4Mar 19, 2026Jun 18, 2026$7,786
@M2K H6long4Dec 18, 2025Mar 19, 2026($1,347)
@M2K Z5long5Sep 19, 2025Dec 18, 2025$2,087
@M2K U5long7Jun 19, 2025Sep 19, 2025$5,414
@M2K M5long6Apr 11, 2025Jun 20, 2025$2,681

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.