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HYBRID DOW

Futures · Started Apr 2025

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
24.3%
Max Drawdown
9.4%
Trades
8
Win Trades
75.0%
Profit Factor
16
Win Months
78.9%
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Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202514.62.63.5-0.62.10.92.71.71.231.7
20260.71.4-2.45.01.41.3-0.31.5-6.24.26.2

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began4/9/2025
Suggested Minimum Capital$35,000
Age19 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades8
# Profitable6
% Profitable75.0%
Avg trade duration69.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown9.4%
drawdown periodSept 03, 2026 - Oct 01, 2026
Annual Return (Compounded)24.3%
Avg win$2,226
Avg loss$417

Ratios

W:L ratio16.01
Sharpe Ratio1.34
Sortino Ratio2.23
Calmar Ratio3.88

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.41
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life42.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-2.2%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)24.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)30.2%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity4.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss3.0%
Chance of 20% account loss0.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$417
Avg Win$2,229
# Winners6
Sum Trade PL (losers)$834
Sum Trade PL (winners)$13,375
Num Months Winners15
# Losers2
% Winners75.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table19

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)99463.41
Avg Position Time (hrs)1657.72
Avg Trade Length69.10
Last Trade Ago34

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)0.90
Daily leverage (max)1.57

Regression

Alpha0.03
Beta0.36
Treynor Index0.14

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.04
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades0.63
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-1.64
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.28
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-3.46
Hold-and-Hope Ratio1.69

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.21
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.87
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.79
df17
t2.29
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.50
Sortino ratio5.58
Upside Potential Ratio7.09
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms4
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.21
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.46
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.51
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error16
t(b)2.08
p(b)0.27
t(a)1.05
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.32
Treynor index (mean / b)0.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
Mean0.20
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.79
df17
t2.30
p0.20
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.57
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.08
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.50
Sortino ratio5.31
Upside Potential Ratio6.82
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.06
Upside SD0.11
Downside SD0.04
N nonnegative terms14
N negative terms4
N of observations18
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.20
SD of predictor0.10
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.48
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.52
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.10
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error16
t(b)2.17
p(b)0.26
t(a)1.05
p(a)0.37
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.03
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)0.39
Jensen alpha (a)0.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.22
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)2.01
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)2.00
df397
t2.48
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.60
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.60
Sortino ratio3.45
Upside Potential Ratio10.71
Upside part of mean0.70
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms212
N negative terms186
N of observations398
Mean of predictor0.21
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.37
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error396
t(b)9.55
p(b)0
t(a)1.78
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)0.61
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
Mean0.22
SD0.11
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.96
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.96
df397
t2.42
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.56
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.55
Sortino ratio3.33
Upside Potential Ratio10.56
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms212
N negative terms186
N of observations398
Mean of predictor0.20
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.13
SD of criterion0.11
Covariance0.01
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.37
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.14
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error396
t(b)9.60
p(b)0
t(a)1.76
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.29
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.44
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.30
Treynor index (mean / b)0.60
Jensen alpha (a)0.14
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean0.05
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.63
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.63
df130
t0.45
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.14
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.40
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.14
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.40
Sortino ratio0.94
Upside Potential Ratio9.84
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms63
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.00
r0.45
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.00
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)5.67
p(b)0.23
t(a)0.01
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.17
Jensen alpha (a)0.00
Mean0.05
SD0.08
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.59
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.59
df130
t0.42
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.36
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.36
Sortino ratio0.88
Upside Potential Ratio9.78
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.47
Upside SD0.06
Downside SD0.05
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms63
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.05
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.08
Covariance0.00
r0.45
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.29
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.00
Mean Square Error0.00
DF error129
t(b)5.65
p(b)0.23
t(a)-0.00
p(a)0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.19
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.20
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.20
Treynor index (mean / b)0.16
Jensen alpha (a)-0.00
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations18
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.01
Median1.02
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.02
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.05
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low3
Percentage of outliers low0.17
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.06
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-2.18
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations398
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high15
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.30
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.14
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.99
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.01
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.24
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.69
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.02
Median0.03
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.04
Mean of quarter 10.01
Mean of quarter 20.03
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations44
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high0.06
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.47
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.08
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-1.19
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.07
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.04
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.07
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.61
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.04
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)3.77
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-441553376
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)28
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.28
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.26
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)6.26
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs6.26
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal5.60
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.30
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.28
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)3.88
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs7.88
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal21.07
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.08
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.08
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.08
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.17
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.91

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MYM U6long3Jun 19, 2026Sep 18, 2026($173)
@MYM M6long2Mar 20, 2026Jun 21, 2026$2,932
@MYM H6long2Mar 12, 2026Mar 20, 2026($666)
@MYM H6long5Dec 18, 2025Mar 1, 2026$605
@MYM Z5long5Sep 19, 2025Dec 18, 2025$2,284
@MYM U5long6Jun 20, 2025Sep 19, 2025$2,053
@MYM M5long9Apr 9, 2025Jun 20, 2025$4,904

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.