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TPP LEVERAGED DOW

Futures · Started Aug 2024

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
11.8%
Max Drawdown
32.0%
Trades
10
Win Trades
50.0%
Profit Factor
3.80
Win Months
59.3%
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Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
20247.51.8-2.711.1-8.68.1
20255.6-3.4-7.4-5.24.86.4-0.84.71.63.9-1.11.710.1
20261.4-0.6-9.111.73.62.7-0.31.9-7.14.57.5

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/12/2024
Suggested Minimum Capital$35,000
Age27 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades10
# Profitable5
% Profitable50.0%
Avg trade duration80.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown32.0%
drawdown periodNov 29, 2024 - April 06, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)11.8%
Avg win$2,679
Avg loss$702

Ratios

W:L ratio3.82
Sharpe Ratio0.50
Sortino Ratio0.71
Calmar Ratio0.63

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.53
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life45.1%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-17.3%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)11.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)16.4%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity8.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss50.5%
Chance of 20% account loss19.0%
Chance of 30% account loss0.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)100.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)318
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$702
Avg Win$2,682
# Winners5
Sum Trade PL (losers)$3,508
Sum Trade PL (winners)$13,411
Num Months Winners16
# Losers5
% Winners50.0%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table27

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)115298.60
Avg Position Time (hrs)1921.64
Avg Trade Length80.10
Last Trade Ago35

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.59
Daily leverage (max)2.08

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0.61
Treynor Index0.05

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.06
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.05
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.09
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.03
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades1.75
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)-15.96
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.25
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-3.41
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.63

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.14
SD0.19
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.74
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.72
df25
t1.09
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.08
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.63
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.07
Sortino ratio1.11
Upside Potential Ratio2.56
Upside part of mean0.33
Downside part of mean-0.19
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.13
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms8
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.19
Covariance0.03
r0.88
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.13
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error24
t(b)8.92
p(b)0
t(a)-0.47
p(a)0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.87
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.17
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.11
Treynor index (mean / b)0.13
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
Mean0.13
SD0.20
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.62
df25
t0.94
p0.18
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.71
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.98
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.72
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio0.92
Upside Potential Ratio2.36
Upside part of mean0.32
Downside part of mean-0.20
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.14
N nonnegative terms18
N negative terms8
N of observations26
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.20
Covariance0.03
r0.88
b (slope, estimate of beta)1.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error24
t(b)9.08
p(b)0
t(a)-0.63
p(a)0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta1.42
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.10
Treynor index (mean / b)0.11
Jensen alpha (a)-0.04
VaR(95%)0.08
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.10
VaR(95%)0.03
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
Mean0.14
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df567
t1.19
p0.12
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.52
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.14
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.52
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.14
Sortino ratio1.17
Upside Potential Ratio8.86
Upside part of mean1.06
Downside part of mean-0.92
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms291
N negative terms277
N of observations568
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.14
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.02
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.61
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error566
t(b)16.03
p(b)0
t(a)0.46
p(a)0.32
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.53
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.68
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.24
Treynor index (mean / b)0.23
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean0.13
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.72
df567
t1.06
p0.14
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.61
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.05
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.61
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.05
Sortino ratio1.03
Upside Potential Ratio8.66
Upside part of mean1.05
Downside part of mean-0.92
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms291
N negative terms277
N of observations568
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.13
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.02
r0.56
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error566
t(b)16.20
p(b)0
t(a)0.37
p(a)0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.54
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.69
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.16
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)0.20
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.12
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.88
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.87
df130
t0.62
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.90
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.90
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.65
Sortino ratio1.33
Upside Potential Ratio10.23
Upside part of mean0.91
Downside part of mean-0.79
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms63
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.17
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)6.59
p(b)0.19
t(a)0.15
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)0.21
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
Mean0.11
SD0.13
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.81
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.81
df130
t0.58
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.96
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.59
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.96
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.58
Sortino ratio1.22
Upside Potential Ratio10.11
Upside part of mean0.91
Downside part of mean-0.80
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms68
N negative terms63
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.16
Mean of criterion0.11
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.13
Covariance0.01
r0.50
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.57
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.02
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)6.58
p(b)0.19
t(a)0.12
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.74
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)0.19
Jensen alpha (a)0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations26
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11.00
Median1.02
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.94
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.07
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.89
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.12
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.19
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.45
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations568
Minimum0.93
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.06
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low13
Percentage of outliers low0.02
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high13
Percentage of outliers high0.02
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.22
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.02
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.21
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.98
Quartile 11.00
Median1.00
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.01
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.16
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.72
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.03
Quartile 10.07
Median0.12
Quartile 30.14
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.12
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.17
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations29
Minimum0
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.26
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.10
Mean of outliers high0.17
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.59
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.11
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.29
Extreme Value Index (regression method)1.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations11
Minimum0
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.03
Maximum0.10
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.06
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.35
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.07
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.12
Extreme Value Index (regression method)2.81
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.13
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-407590496
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)128
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.99
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.99
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.65
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.17
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.63
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.64
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.74
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.14
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.15
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.44
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.60
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal8.88

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
@MYM U6long2Jun 18, 2026Sep 17, 2026($388)
@MYM M6long2Mar 19, 2026Jun 18, 2026$5,349
@MYM H6long2Dec 18, 2025Mar 19, 2026($2,085)
@MYM Z5long2Sep 19, 2025Dec 18, 2025$1,387
@MYM U5long2Jun 20, 2025Sep 19, 2025$3,736
@MYM M5long2Mar 21, 2025Jun 20, 2025($40)
@MYM H5long2Dec 20, 2024Mar 21, 2025($868)
@MYM Z4long2Sep 19, 2024Dec 20, 2024($137)
@MYM U4long2Aug 12, 2024Sep 19, 2024$2,280

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.