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CAC LONG or FLAT

Futures · Futures · Started Mar 2022

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
9.8%
Max Drawdown
24.4%
Trades
156
Win Trades
73.7%
Profit Factor
1.70
Win Months
67.9%
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About this strategy

Experience In Markets: 25 years
Job Title: Equity Trader
Preferred Markets: CAC, DAX and Europe 600

Description from the strategy designer:

This strategy is predominantly long the French stock market, also known as the CAC40. While it will mostly be long the market, it will also have 'short' positions as hedges against the 'buy' exposure from time to time.

The CAC is a large contract, so smaller contracts in the DAX, or occasionally the STOXX Europe 600, may also be traded if the time isn't right to be in the CAC. This will happen more often during volatile times of uncertainty, where large positions are avoided.

Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202211.12.06.2-11.36.7-8.4-7.212.11.6-5.24.5
20239.50.90.11.4-3.36.40.02.0-0.5-1.04.80.221.9
20242.31.41.8-1.12.0-8.80.12.11.2-1.8-2.13.90.4
20254.71.8-1.7-1.84.70.21.73.31.80.83.60.821.4
20262.80.9-2.01.66.3-0.22.5-3.4-9.00.6-0.7

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began3/7/2022
Suggested Minimum Capital$50,000
Age56 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades156
# Profitable115
% Profitable73.7%
Avg trade duration9.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown24.4%
drawdown periodMay 20, 2024 - April 09, 2025
Annual Return (Compounded)9.8%
Avg win$534
Avg loss$886

Ratios

W:L ratio1.69
Sharpe Ratio0.49
Sortino Ratio0.69
Calmar Ratio0.66

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.42
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life84.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-30.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)9.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.1%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)12.7%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity14.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.1%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss45.0%
Chance of 20% account loss17.5%
Chance of 30% account loss3.5%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)647
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)654

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$886
Avg Win$534
# Winners115
Sum Trade PL (losers)$36,306
Sum Trade PL (winners)$61,379
Num Months Winners39
# Losers41
% Winners73.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table56

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)13129.55
Avg Position Time (hrs)218.83
Avg Trade Length9.10
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)1.21
Daily leverage (max)7.93

Regression

Alpha0.01
Beta0.36
Treynor Index0.07

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.10
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.03
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.01
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades4.46
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)1.21
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats40.86
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats66.76
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades0.88
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.32
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.23

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.12
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.70
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.69
df53
t1.48
p0.07
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.63
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.62
Sortino ratio1.03
Upside Potential Ratio2.38
Upside part of mean0.27
Downside part of mean-0.15
Upside SD0.13
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms15
N of observations54
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.12
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.02
r0.60
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.66
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error52
t(b)5.43
p(b)0
t(a)0.59
p(a)0.28
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.90
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.09
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)0.18
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean0.10
SD0.17
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.61
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.60
df53
t1.29
p0.10
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.54
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.33
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.53
Sortino ratio0.86
Upside Potential Ratio2.20
Upside part of mean0.26
Downside part of mean-0.16
Upside SD0.12
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms39
N negative terms15
N of observations54
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.17
Covariance0.02
r0.60
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.66
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error52
t(b)5.38
p(b)0
t(a)0.49
p(a)0.31
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.91
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)0.16
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.07
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.09
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.04
Mean0.10
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.73
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.73
df1199
t1.57
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.18
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.18
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.65
Sortino ratio1.00
Upside Potential Ratio6.75
Upside part of mean0.69
Downside part of mean-0.59
Upside SD0.10
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms538
N negative terms662
N of observations1200
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.10
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1198
t(b)16.40
p(b)0.29
t(a)1.02
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.39
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)0.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
Mean0.09
SD0.14
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.66
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df1199
t1.41
p0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.58
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.26
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.58
Sortino ratio0.89
Upside Potential Ratio6.59
Upside part of mean0.68
Downside part of mean-0.59
Upside SD0.09
Downside SD0.10
N nonnegative terms538
N negative terms662
N of observations1200
Mean of predictor0.11
Mean of criterion0.09
SD of predictor0.17
SD of criterion0.14
Covariance0.01
r0.43
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.35
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.06
Mean Square Error0.02
DF error1198
t(b)16.40
p(b)0.29
t(a)0.93
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.31
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.17
Treynor index (mean / b)0.26
Jensen alpha (a)0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
Mean-0.07
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.58
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.58
df130
t-0.41
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.19
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.35
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.19
Sortino ratio-0.76
Upside Potential Ratio5.40
Upside part of mean0.49
Downside part of mean-0.55
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms97
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.17
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.09
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)1.91
p(b)0.40
t(a)-0.56
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.42
Jensen alpha (a)-0.09
Mean-0.07
SD0.12
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.64
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.64
df130
t-0.45
p0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-3.41
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio2.13
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-3.41
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation2.14
Sortino ratio-0.82
Upside Potential Ratio5.32
Upside part of mean0.48
Downside part of mean-0.56
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.09
N nonnegative terms34
N negative terms97
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion-0.07
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.12
Covariance0.00
r0.16
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.16
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)1.89
p(b)0.40
t(a)-0.59
p(a)0.53
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.01
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.46
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations54
Minimum0.88
Quartile 11.00
Median1.02
Quartile 31.03
Maximum1.12
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.02
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low6
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high1.10
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.81
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.02
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.10
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.41
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.08
Number of observations1200
Minimum0.92
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.07
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low121
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.98
Number of outliers high97
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.02
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.38
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.17
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low25
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high30
Percentage of outliers high0.23
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-2.48
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.42
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations9
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.11
Maximum0.17
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30.09
Mean of quarter 40.15
Inter Quartile Range0.11
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.16
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.16
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.16
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.36
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.18
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.27
Number of observations55
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.02
Maximum0.19
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.07
Inter Quartile Range0.02
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high5
Percentage of outliers high0.09
Mean of outliers high0.15
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.76
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.34
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.25
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.06
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.11
Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.01
Median0.02
Quartile 30.08
Maximum0.14
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.02
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.14
Inter Quartile Range0.07
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-398742752
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)324
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.18
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.14
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.83
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0.95
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal1.59
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.16
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.13
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0.66
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs1.77
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.38
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.05
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.05
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.33
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.33
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-3.05

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
XXP Z6long1Sep 23, 2026Oct 21, 2026$180
MT V6long1Sep 17, 2026Oct 16, 2026($1,998)
MT U6long1Aug 20, 2026Sep 17, 2026($4,121)
MT N6long1Jul 1, 2026Jul 2, 2026$1,768
@ES U6short1Jul 2, 2026Jul 2, 2026($210)
MT M6long1May 15, 2026May 19, 2026$1,385
EX M6long1Apr 22, 2026May 6, 2026$1,635
XXP M6long1Mar 18, 2026Apr 10, 2026$744
MT H6long1Mar 13, 2026Mar 18, 2026$1,486
XXP H6long1Mar 2, 2026Mar 13, 2026($1,612)
XXP H6long1Feb 24, 2026Feb 25, 2026$269
XXP H6long1Feb 11, 2026Feb 12, 2026$366
MT G6long1Jan 28, 2026Jan 29, 2026$758
XXP H6long2Jan 19, 2026Jan 27, 2026$834
XXP Z5long2Nov 17, 2025Dec 5, 2025$1,110
MT X5long1Nov 6, 2025Nov 7, 2025$411
MT X5long1Nov 4, 2025Nov 5, 2025$961
XXP Z5long3Oct 9, 2025Oct 20, 2025$537
XXP Z5long1Sep 22, 2025Sep 29, 2025$178
XXP Z5long0.85Sep 17, 2025Sep 18, 2025$190
XXP U5long1.7Sep 1, 2025Sep 11, 2025$616
MT U5long0.85Aug 26, 2025Aug 27, 2025$487
MT Q5long0.85Aug 11, 2025Aug 13, 2025$645
XXP U5long1.7Jul 28, 2025Aug 11, 2025$337
MT Q5long0.85Jul 22, 2025Jul 23, 2025$1,150
MT N5long0.85Jun 19, 2025Jun 27, 2025$1,393
MT M5long0.85Jun 13, 2025Jun 19, 2025($1,150)
XXP M5long0.85Jun 12, 2025Jun 13, 2025($178)
XXP M5long3.4Mar 20, 2025Jun 5, 2025$590
DXS H5long0.85Mar 13, 2025Mar 20, 2025$367

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.