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LoF CAMBRIDGE FUTURES

Futures · Futures · Started Sep 2020

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
24.8%
Max Drawdown
27.7%
Trades
252
Win Trades
75.4%
Profit Factor
1.90
Win Months
68.9%
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About this strategy


Description from the strategy designer:

This strategy has been designed to follow the FTSE, although by hoping to miss out on a few of the drops throughout the year, it aims to beat its benchmark index.

If the strategy can liquidate a long FTSE position after a good run, then it will look to get back in at a lower level, therefore creating an index-beating performance. Occasionally it will trade micro US or DAX futures, but only when mitigating risk, or implementing a small short position.

90% of the time, the strategy will be on the long side of the market, but if the market looks like it is going to fall, it reserves the right to place a micro short position.

If the strategy has no position, then the capital is held in cash, waiting. There is no point being in a market that appears overbought, and being flat can often be a great trade.

Financials / Indexes

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
202013.91.223.82.346.0
2021-14.58.021.0-0.210.011.22.05.75.49.6-4.14.470.1
20220.87.0-7.92.26.3-8.37.0-1.0-16.512.64.1-1.11.5
20235.0-0.8-6.79.3-11.13.32.6-6.53.9-6.35.110.35.6
2024-0.13.65.50.41.8-4.44.83.82.1-3.71.4-5.69.3
20253.42.85.7-1.02.90.0-0.10.93.30.4-0.00.720.3
20262.52.90.40.73.52.10.7-2.3-6.26.310.4

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began9/23/2020
Suggested Minimum Capital$60,000
Age74 months
What it tradesFutures
# Trades252
# Profitable190
% Profitable75.4%
Avg trade duration6.1 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown27.7%
drawdown periodJan 11, 2021 - Jan 29, 2021
Annual Return (Compounded)24.8%
Avg win$591
Avg loss$932

Ratios

W:L ratio1.94
Sharpe Ratio0.84
Sortino Ratio1.19
Calmar Ratio1.30

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP5000.30
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life139.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)146.4%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)24.8%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.2%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)28.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity3.0%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.0%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex0.0%
Percent Trades Futures1.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Short Options - Percent Covered100.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss43.5%
Chance of 20% account loss17.0%
Chance of 30% account loss3.5%
Chance of 40% account loss1.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)769
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)571

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$932
Avg Win$591
# Winners190
Sum Trade PL (losers)$57,812
Sum Trade PL (winners)$112,234
Num Months Winners52
# Losers62
% Winners75.4%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table74

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)8831.47
Avg Position Time (hrs)147.19
Avg Trade Length6.10
Last Trade Ago0

Leverage

Daily leverage (average)2.49
Daily leverage (max)9.14

Regression

Alpha0.05
Beta0.42
Treynor Index0.15

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.03
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.01
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.06
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades5.38
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)4.16
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.21
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-2.21
Hold-and-Hope Ratio0.19

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean0.25
SD0.24
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.05
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.04
df71
t2.56
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.22
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.86
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.22
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.85
Sortino ratio2.21
Upside Potential Ratio3.68
Upside part of mean0.42
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.22
Downside SD0.11
N nonnegative terms48
N negative terms24
N of observations72
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.24
Covariance0.01
r0.38
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.62
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.17
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error70
t(b)3.45
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.83
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.26
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.98
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)0.41
Jensen alpha (a)0.17
Mean0.22
SD0.23
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.97
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.96
df71
t2.38
p0.01
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.15
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.78
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.15
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.78
Sortino ratio1.86
Upside Potential Ratio3.30
Upside part of mean0.40
Downside part of mean-0.17
Upside SD0.20
Downside SD0.12
N nonnegative terms48
N negative terms24
N of observations72
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.22
SD of predictor0.15
SD of criterion0.23
Covariance0.01
r0.39
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.59
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.15
Mean Square Error0.05
DF error70
t(b)3.50
p(b)0.00
t(a)1.72
p(a)0.04
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.25
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.93
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.33
Treynor index (mean / b)0.38
Jensen alpha (a)0.15
VaR(95%)0.09
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.11
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.05
Mean0.25
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.16
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.16
df1577
t2.84
p0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.96
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.36
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.96
Sortino ratio1.65
Upside Potential Ratio7.15
Upside part of mean1.08
Downside part of mean-0.83
Upside SD0.16
Downside SD0.15
N nonnegative terms684
N negative terms894
N of observations1578
Mean of predictor0.13
Mean of criterion0.25
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.01
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.39
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.20
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error1576
t(b)12.35
p(b)0.35
t(a)2.36
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.45
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.36
Treynor index (mean / b)0.64
Jensen alpha (a)0.20
Mean0.23
SD0.22
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)1.04
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)1.04
df1577
t2.56
p0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio1.84
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation1.84
Sortino ratio1.46
Upside Potential Ratio6.88
Upside part of mean1.07
Downside part of mean-0.84
Upside SD0.15
Downside SD0.16
N nonnegative terms684
N negative terms894
N of observations1578
Mean of predictor0.12
Mean of criterion0.23
SD of predictor0.16
SD of criterion0.22
Covariance0.01
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.40
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.18
Mean Square Error0.04
DF error1576
t(b)12.49
p(b)0.35
t(a)2.13
p(a)0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.33
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.46
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.01
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.35
Treynor index (mean / b)0.57
Jensen alpha (a)0.18
VaR(95%)0.02
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean0.07
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.72
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.71
df130
t0.51
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.06
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.49
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.06
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.49
Sortino ratio0.98
Upside Potential Ratio7.02
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.45
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.07
N nonnegative terms53
N negative terms78
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.15
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.30
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.04
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)3.52
p(b)0.31
t(a)0.26
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)0.29
Jensen alpha (a)0.04
Mean0.07
SD0.10
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.67
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.66
df130
t0.47
p0.48
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-2.11
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio3.44
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-2.11
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation3.43
Sortino ratio0.90
Upside Potential Ratio6.92
Upside part of mean0.52
Downside part of mean-0.45
Upside SD0.07
Downside SD0.08
N nonnegative terms53
N negative terms78
N of observations131
Mean of predictor0.14
Mean of criterion0.07
SD of predictor0.12
SD of criterion0.10
Covariance0.00
r0.29
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.25
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0.03
Mean Square Error0.01
DF error129
t(b)3.49
p(b)0.32
t(a)0.24
p(a)0.49
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.11
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.02
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.40
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.31
Treynor index (mean / b)0.27
Jensen alpha (a)0.03
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.01

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations72
Minimum0.85
Quartile 10.99
Median1.02
Quartile 31.05
Maximum1.33
Mean of quarter 10.95
Mean of quarter 21.01
Mean of quarter 31.03
Mean of quarter 41.11
Inter Quartile Range0.06
Number outliers low2
Percentage of outliers low0.03
Mean of outliers low0.87
Number of outliers high3
Percentage of outliers high0.04
Mean of outliers high1.23
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.04
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.05
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.31
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.05
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.10
Number of observations1578
Minimum0.89
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.01
Maximum1.11
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low133
Percentage of outliers low0.08
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high129
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.36
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.01
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.24
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.02
Number of observations131
Minimum0.97
Quartile 11.00
Median1
Quartile 31.00
Maximum1.02
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21.00
Mean of quarter 31.00
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0.00
Number outliers low14
Percentage of outliers low0.11
Mean of outliers low0.99
Number of outliers high15
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.01
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.27
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.34
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.01

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations11
Minimum0.01
Quartile 10.05
Median0.07
Quartile 30.10
Maximum0.15
Mean of quarter 10.03
Mean of quarter 20.06
Mean of quarter 30.08
Mean of quarter 40.12
Inter Quartile Range0.05
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-1.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.14
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.33
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.15
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.21
Number of observations85
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.01
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.22
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.02
Mean of quarter 40.10
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high10
Percentage of outliers high0.12
Mean of outliers high0.14
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-0.33
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.09
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.11
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-0.41
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.10
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.12
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.00
Quartile 30.01
Maximum0.08
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.00
Mean of quarter 30.01
Mean of quarter 40.03
Inter Quartile Range0.01
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high1
Percentage of outliers high0.08
Mean of outliers high0.08
Extreme Value Index (moments method)1.18
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.03
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)9.03
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.42
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-412054624
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)18
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.5%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.59
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.29
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.93
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.35
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal2.57
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.60
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.29
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.30
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs2.86
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal10.96
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0.10
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0.10
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)1.19
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs3.01
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal7.94

Trading record

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
XXP Z6long1Oct 20, 2026Oct 21, 2026$407
LF Z6long1Sep 17, 2026Oct 15, 2026$206
LF U6long1Aug 27, 2026Sep 17, 2026($931)
XXP U6long2Aug 12, 2026Aug 27, 2026($1,010)
XXP U6long2Jul 9, 2026Jul 15, 2026$543
XXP U6long2Jun 18, 2026Jun 30, 2026$718
XXP M6long2May 28, 2026Jun 12, 2026$599
XXP M6long1May 15, 2026May 20, 2026$510
XXP M6long2Apr 23, 2026May 6, 2026$2,089
XXP H6long1Mar 11, 2026Mar 11, 2026$188
XXP H6long1Mar 5, 2026Mar 10, 2026$164
LF H6long1Feb 6, 2026Feb 6, 2026$1,621
XXP H6long1Feb 5, 2026Feb 6, 2026($199)
XXP H6long1Jan 29, 2026Feb 2, 2026$406
XXP H6long1Jan 21, 2026Jan 22, 2026$372
LF H6long1Jan 8, 2026Jan 9, 2026$957
LF Z5long1Nov 17, 2025Dec 12, 2025$400
XXP Z5long1Nov 14, 2025Nov 17, 2025($147)
XXP Z5long1Nov 4, 2025Nov 10, 2025$229
EX Z5long1Nov 4, 2025Nov 4, 2025$107
LF Z5long1Oct 16, 2025Oct 20, 2025$320
LF Z5long1Sep 24, 2025Sep 24, 2025$1,071
LF Z5long1Sep 18, 2025Sep 19, 2025$183
LF U5long1Sep 1, 2025Sep 9, 2025$546
XXP U5long1Aug 26, 2025Sep 1, 2025($231)
XXP U5long1Aug 11, 2025Aug 14, 2025$296
@M2K U5long1Jul 31, 2025Aug 6, 2025$54
XXP U5long1Aug 1, 2025Aug 4, 2025$338
XXP U5long1Jul 14, 2025Jul 18, 2025$201
LF U5long1Jun 25, 2025Jun 26, 2025$498

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.